January 10, 2008 - LA Daily News: Primary in California may be pivotal

With no clear front-runners yet in the nation's presidential race, the decision to move up California's primary appears to be paying off as candidates in both parties are now expected to grant more attention to the state than ever before, political experts and pollsters said Wednesday.

California's primary will be held Feb. 5, dubbed by some as "Super Duper Tuesday" because nearly two dozen states will hold primaries or caucuses that day - more on a single day than in any previous national campaign.

Traditionally, California has been seen as a nonfactor in presidential primaries because its primary was in June, long after the party nominees had been virtually decided.

But with the recent close results in New Hampshire and Iowa leaving both races still up for grabs, candidates are increasingly focusing on the Feb. 5 states, with California remaining the biggest prize.

"It looks like California is likely to remain in play," said Larry Gerston, professor of political science at San Jose State University. "So that's the good news.

"The bad news is we're going to have three major elections within 10 months. It's great for the consultants, but it's not so hot for the voters who get kind of tired of hearing all this stuff all the time."

But even though several more states will have their own primaries before Feb. 5, the rapid growth of voting by mail in California means voters here have already begun making their decisions before those other contests are even decided.

"There's no question that moving to Feb. 5 has increased the level of activity and importance for voters," said Rob Stutzman, a California-based adviser to the Mitt Romney campaign. "It would appear now just a week into this process that Californians are going to have a say on each side of the aisle."

A recent Field Poll found the race tightening on the Democratic side, as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's former lead of 25 points over Sen. Barack Obama now stands at a 36-22 margin.

Still, Clinton's surprising New Hampshire victory has re-established her as the Democratic candidate to beat in California, where she has led in polls and fundraising, said Jaime Regalado, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute at California State University, Los Angeles.

"California is still Hillary's state to lose," he said. "It's one of the states deeply in Hillary's pockets."

But Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, cautions that the Democratic race in California might now be too close to call.

"Without any new California data, the best I can say is (the race) is probably similar to national samples," DiCamillo said.

"There might be a post-New Hampshire bump. I haven't seen it. But from that kind of trend, the race in California is very close at this point."

On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani was leading in California with 25percent, but former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had made rapid gains to maintain second place with 17percent.

Some said Arizona Sen. John McCain's New Hampshire win makes him a big beneficiary in California, where his previous poor showing in polls had strapped his campaign financially and kept him from setting up a much-needed state operation.

"John McCain doesn't have the financial resources that Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have on the Republican side," said veteran GOP expert Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the nonpartisan California Target Book.

"But people know who he is, and he's just won big. His name is on people's minds, and he benefits greatly from that."

And California's sizable mail-in voting bloc could work in his favor.

"I'm sure the McCain campaign would like lots of absentee ballots to come in next week and allow them to capitalize on the New Hampshire afterglow," said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont.

"But the problem for McCain is that identifying and turning out absentee voters is very expensive."

Meanwhile, candidates also have been scrambling to beef up their grass-roots organizations in the Golden State and line up new endorsements.

On Wednesday, Obama announced five new endorsements from L.A.-area politicians. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Pasadena, Los Angeles County Supervisor Yvonne B. Burke, Assemblyman Ted Lieu, D-El Segundo, West Hollywood Mayor John Duran and former Rep. Mel Levine all lined up outside Los Angeles City Hall to tout their support for Obama.

This year, they said, California's primary is more important than ever, and Obama's state organizers said they were making 15,000 calls a day to absentee voters and targeting independent voters who are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary.

Schiff said the split on the Democratic nominee in Iowa and New Hampshire put even more emphasis on California's primary.

"I want to thank (Iowa and New Hampshire voters) for giving California a gift we have always wanted," Schiff said. "We wanted to matter in presidential campaigns and, boy, we matter big-time. California counts because whoever wins California, wins."

Traditionally California has simply been seen as the ATM of national politics, a place candidates visited early to raise funds from wealthy donors in the entertainment industry and Silicon Valley, but rarely paid attention to late in the campaign.

It is also a state that traditionally pays far more in taxes to the federal government than it receives in services.

Some cynics felt part of the reason California lawmakers opted to move up the primary - and still have a separate primary for state offices in June - was so they could ask voters to approve a term-limits revision in February and then termed-out legislators could seek another term in June.

Hoffenblum said that motivation could end up having national repercussions.

"(Assembly Speaker) Fabian Nu ez's political ambitions might influence who the next president of the United States will be," Hoffenblum said. "If it wasn't for term limits, we wouldn't have moved it up. We would have had it in June. There would be no stomach to fund a statewide campaign early."

But state Sen. Ronald Calderon, D-Montebello, the author of the bill to move the state's primary to February, said the public simply couldn't tolerate the idea of the state being ignored.

"For years we've complained in California that we're not relevant, but it turns out that we could be very relevant and very important," said veteran Los Angeles political consultant Joe Cerrell.

"We could end the whole game. It may be over the night of the 5th.

"It's about time we were important. I've been doing California primaries since (Democratic nominee) Adlai Stevenson in 1956, and we've never been this relevant."

Staff Writer Kerry Cavanaugh contributed.