High hopes for growth don't survive the first year.

By Adam Ashton / The Modesto Bee

The University of California at Merced is scaling back its enrollment projections even as it adds new programs to lure more Central Valley students, the school's outgoing chancellor told a special legislative committee Tuesday.

The 1-year-old university now expects to grow at a rate of about 675 students per year, down from the 800 it anticipated previously, Chancellor Carol Tomlinson-Keasey said.

The new goal presents financial challenges for the campus because it would get less money from the state for educating fewer students than it would at the previous rate.

Nonetheless, Tomlinson-Keasey described the new projections as a more comfortable fit for the growing campus.

"Our falling short here I think is a very minor glitch," she said.

Assemblywoman Barbara Matthews, D-Tracy, invited Tomlinson-Keasey to the Capitol to give an update on the campus' inaugural year.

The meeting came after it was widely reported that fewer than 700 students had registered despite the school's goal of enrolling 800.

Matthews framed the session as a chance for Tomlinson-Keasey to discuss the campus' successes and to confront questions about its viability given its failure to meet enrollment targets.

Matthews, whose district includes the campus, backed away from the word "failure" after she used it Tuesday. She chose the phrase "areas of improvement" instead.

Three San Joaquin Valley lawmakers who joined Matthews maintained that tone, thanking Tomlinson-Keasey for her work and praising the campus.

Assemblyman Juan Arambula, D-Fresno, summed up their perspective when he said, "What is good for Merced is good for the rest of the San Joaquin Valley."

Part of the school's mission is to bring the Central Valley up to par with the rest of the state in college attendance. While 7.7 percent of statewide high school graduates go on to a UC campus, 3.4 percent of valley students make it there, according to figures Tomlinson-Keasey showed.

UC Merced opened a valley educational outreach program in 2003. Since then, the number of valley students applying to UC campuses increased from 3,100 to more than 3,800.

Tomlinson-Keasey unveiled another program at the hearing that could further improve those numbers.

The campus and Fresno County's West Hills Community College last week won a $3 million federal grant to develop a partnership that would steer more students from the two-year school to UC Merced.

Tomlinson-Keasey said her school is working with the UC system to make sure other campuses do not over-enroll. Three did so this year, cutting into the number of students who might consider the Merced school.

MANY ON ACADEMIC PROBATION

Meanwhile, the campus is working on ensuring the students it admits finish college. About one-sixth of its students are eligible for academic probation -about double the UC system average.

Tomlinson-Keasey said the school has set up programs to check grades and to get students on the bubble into "success" workshops.

Assemblywoman Jackie Goldberg, D-Los Angeles, the only lawmaker from outside the valley to attend the hearing, questioned whether the campus could obtain environmental permits to build its 900-acre plan.

An Army Corps of Engineers project manager and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently told the Merced Sun-Star the campus' plan would ruin rare vernal pools.

"As long as your enrollment isn't up yet, maybe we could look at some alternatives," Goldberg said.

Tomlinson-Keasey said the school is on track to finish its plan and she expects a final draft of its environmental review by early next year.

She said the proposal leaves the smallest environmental footprint because it encourages development of an adjacent and pedestrian-friendly community. It reserves about 30 acres of vernal pool habitat for every acre the university builds on.

"What the university has been put through has been extraordinary by any measure," said Assemblyman Dave Cogdill, R-Modesto, referring to the university's decision to abandon a site it originally wanted because of environmental concerns.

Bee staff writer Adam Ashton can be reached at 578-2366 or aashton@modbee.com.