Rapid growth keeps Valley challenged

The San Joaquin Valley's population is growing fast and facing considerable challenges, according to a new state report.

Since 2000, more than 427,000 people have moved to the Valley -- equal to almost the entire population of Fresno -- and its population will continue to climb in coming decades.

As it grows, the Valley continues to struggle with high poverty rates, low higher-education attainment and poor air and water quality, states the report by the California Research Bureau, a branch of the California State Library.

The California Partnership for the San Joaquin Valley requested the report, which focuses on the land, people and economy of the Valley's eight counties.

The partnership, formed by Gov. Schwarzenegger to suggest ways to improve the Valley's economy and living conditions, will use the data as a starting point to develop ideas.

"It will serve as the factual basis for other steps to follow," said Assembly Member Juan Arambula, D-Fresno. "It will give us objective information. You always need to have your facts straight before you can come up with good policy decisions."

The Valley is largely rural, but 36.3% of its population lives in Fresno, Visalia, Bakersfield, Stockton and Modesto. Fresno alone accounts for 12% of the Valley's population.

Since 1975, the population of every Valley county has grown faster than California as a whole, and the Valley's population is expected to grow substantially larger. About 3.3 million people lived in the Valley in 2000, and more than 7.9 million people are expected in 2050.

The Valley is facing challenges as it grows.

The percentage of Valley residents age 25 and older who have a bachelor's degree is lower than the state average. About 27% of Californians had a four-year college degree in 2000, while just 17.5% of Fresno County residents and 11.5% of Tulare County residents had degrees.

The report states that University of California at Merced, which opened in September with 1,000 students, will make college more accessible to Valley students. About 250 students in the first class are from the Valley.

"We have people with low levels of formal education and more than our share of school dropouts," Arambula said. "We have to balance bringing new jobs with making sure that the people who are here will be able to do those jobs."

Agriculture dominates the Valley, accounting for 13.8% of employment compared with just 2.5% statewide. In 2003, Fresno County had a total agricultural production value of about $4 billion -- more than 12 times that of Los Angeles County, the report states.

Local and state governments also are major employers in the region. Also big employers are retail trade, health care and construction.

Fresno County's unemployment rate is above the state average, but it has been getting better since 1992, when the rate was 15.6%. In 2004, the rate was just 10.5%.

The report's author, Ken Umbach, a policy analyst with the research bureau, said the change in unemployment rates is notable.

The Valley is "chipping a bit more at the unemployment numbers," Umbach said.

He also reported that water and air quality continue to be issues of concern to the Valley. Long-standing drainage problems hamper water quality, and the Valley's air basin tends to trap contaminants.

The report is the first of two requested by the partnership. The second study focusing on state funding inequity is being prepared and should be ready for the partnership's next meeting in early December.

Said Connie Conway, chairwoman of the Tulare County Board of Supervisors and deputy co-chairperson of the partnership: "Our challenge is how do we turn all of these statistics ... into an actual plan."

The reporter can be reached at jfitzenberger@fresnobee.com or (916) 326-5541.