January 4, 2007

Governor Schwarzenegger will be at the center of swearing-in festivities next week, and will also deliver his annual State of the State speech and release his proposed budget—signaling his political direction at the beginning of his full term.

The central question is which governor we will hear from? In his three years in office, we’ve had three different governors. First was the Governor who was strongly popular, didn’t have to work with others, and called the legislature “girlie-men.” The second governor called a special election and targeted teachers and nurses. The third governor worked across the aisle to attack large problems.

The voters’ message this last fall was clear: they liked the third governor. Schwarzenegger has indicated he wants to expand healthcare access; address prison issues, given a federal court takeover of the prison health system; cut the lingering $5 billion state budget deficit; and decide exactly how to implement the $42.7 billion in bonds the voters authorized in November.

These are contradictory goals. It will be extremely difficult to expand healthcare access, expand prison spending, issue significant debt—and then cut the budget. To do any of these will require continuing the bipartisan attitude of 2006, and some political or budgetary slight-of-hand.

In the Assembly, there is one other complication. The Republican minority replaced their leader in November with the expressed concern that their past leader was not standing up to the governor or the Assembly Democrats in a strong enough manner. No bill with budget impact can be approved without the support of Assembly Republicans.

It might not be enough for the governor and Assembly Democrats to reach a deal on some of these thorny issues. After such a clear election mandate for working together, it is hard to believe the Assembly Republicans might derail that bipartisan spirit—but that is a very real possibility.

As a member of the Assembly leadership, I personally want us to continue down the road to fiscal solvency, but not at the expense of hard-fought gains in education. I want to expand healthcare access and have taken the lead with AB 13 to insure all of California’s kids. The bonds for water quality, levee repair, transportation and affordable housing must be issued, but in a phased manner that protects the budget. We have to address the federal takeover of the prisons, but have at the center plans to lower the recidivism rate.

This is going to be an interesting year, and I begin it in a hopeful spirit we can get some big things done.

Most pundits give term limits reform a low chance for success, even amid buzz that Governor Schwarzenegger may throw his support behind some kind of reform. Either way, it’s going to be a fascinating year watching what will likely be the most challenging on-the-job training the legislature has seen in modern times.